Daytona Beach, FL – It’s very likely that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will continue to be a quiet one.
That’s the word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration after revising its seasonal outlook on Thursday.
The new outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is similar to the one issued earlier this week by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. Click here for that story.
NOAA CPC lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Dr. Gerry Bell is calling for a 90% chance of a below-normal hurricane season. That’s 20% higher than the 70% initially predicted by NOAA just before the season started June 1st.
“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events,” Bell added. “Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started.”
The 90% probability of a below-normal season is the highest confidence level given by NOAA since it started seasonal hurricane outlooks in 1998.
NOAA’s revised forecast calls for 6 to 10 named storms in 2015, with 1 to 4 becoming hurricanes and 0 to 1 becoming a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
Back in late May, NOAA’s forecast had 6 to 11 named storms, with 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes and 0 to 2 becoming a Category 3 or higher.
The downgrade in storms is being blamed in part on a massive El Niño effect that’s creating strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere, enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and cooler sea surface temperatures than normal.
The Atlantic averages 12 named storms during hurricane season, with 6 that turn into hurricanes and 3 that turn into major hurricanes.
There’s been 3 named Atlantic storms – Ana, Bill and Claudette – so far in 2015. Ana made landfall in South Carolina in May while Bill did likewise a month later in Texas.
The Volusia-Flagler area hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane or tropical storm since 2004.
The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1st and ends November 30th.
The graph above of NOAA’s new outlook is courtesy of NOAA.
Copyright 2015 Southern Stone Communications.